What is it about?
This study examines the perception among policy makers that fewer medical beds will be needed in the future. It then explains why nearness to death (approximated by the absolute number of deaths) is far more relevant to medical bed demand. Any agent capable of causing death will also have multiple times more admissions, i.e. COVID-19 and hence deaths are acting as a far wider proxy for bed demand. Due to the WW II baby boom deaths are set to greatly increase over the next 40 years.
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Why is it important?
For many years the ageing population or demographic forecasting has been used to predict the need for medical beds. Over a 30 year period I have never seen an age-based forecast which worked in the real world. This paper examines why such modelling needs to be revised.
Perspectives
The vastly expensive Private Finance Initiative (PFI) in the UK led to the "need" for fewer beds in order to make PFI projects appear affordable (at least on paper). The brutal reality is that the NHS was stripped of beds such that it is totally unprepared for the rising demand which will occur over the next 40 years.
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Does the ageing population correctly predict the need for medical beds?: Part one: fundamental principles, British Journal of Healthcare Management, August 2021, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2020.0156.
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