What is it about?
Monte Carlo simulation was conducted using typical case-mix for England to determine the inherent financial risk for primary care organisations. Risk (volatility in costs) does not decline below +/- 1% until a population of around 300,000. High cost/low volume events can be moved into a risk pool to reduce core risk.
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Why is it important?
This paper only covered the financial risk arising from chance variation in case mix. This minimum case risk arising from chance and environmental factors combined is very high.
Perspectives
The implications of this study were completely ignored in the Lansley re-organisation of the NHS. GP's were offered to operate in a way which could never achieve financial stability. Part of a longer series on the real-world risk in health care commissioning, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf A 4_part series in Journal of Health Care Finance, winter 2021 has updated these concepts, http://www.healthfinancejournal.com/~junland/index.php/johcf/index
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Financial risk in practice based commissioning, British Journal of Healthcare Management, May 2008, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2008.14.5.29343.
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