What is it about?

The study was designed to examine the application of Monte Carlo simulation to analyse vote counts from the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. The study adopted a simulation approach and the data were simulated using the R programming language. The actual and simulated data were analysed using frequency and percentage distribution as well as Spearman Rank Correlation tests.

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Why is it important?

Election forensic is a nascent field in Social Science. It uses statistical methods to verify whether election results are free from anomalies or not. The techniques adopted in election forensic are based on finding patterns in the electoral returns data and the possible deviation of election data from the expected distribution of this pattern. The study adopted secondary data gathered from the electoral body in Nigeria. We adopted agent-based approach (using Monte Carlo method) to detect anomalies in the Nigeria 2011 and 2015 presidential election results


his research work has contributed to literature in showing that Monte Carlo simulation, using PERT distribution approach, can be used to analyze election data with a view to detect irregularities in the data. Based on the findings of this study and the reviewed reports in literature, the 2011 and 2015 presidential election results were marred with irregular data.

Prof Wole Michael Olatokun
University of Ibadan

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Monte Carlo simulation of vote counts from Nigeria presidential elections, Cogent Social Sciences, January 2021, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/23311886.2021.1914397.
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