What is it about?
The air transport sector has been vital to Hong Kong's economic development. Nonetheless, the operations of aircraft generate a significant amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study analyzed aviation kerosene consumption data spanning from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2018, leading to the creation of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that accurately captures the actual consumption trends. This model was subsequently employed to predict aviation kerosene consumption from the first quarter of 2019 through to the fourth quarter of 2024, while also evaluating the decrease in aviation kerosene usage and the related GHG emissions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, it was utilized to project aviation kerosene consumption and GHG emissions for the year 2030.
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Why is it important?
This study pioneered the quantification of GHG emission reductions in Hong Kong’s air transport industry resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Basically, it developed a seasonal ARIMA model utilizing actual quarterly aviation kerosene consumption data from Hong Kong spanning 2011 to 2018. The model was then used to forecast quarterly aviation kerosene consumption from 2019 to 2030. The analysis revealed that the reduction in GHG emissions reached a peak of aound 16,000 kT of CO2 in 2022, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the results suggested that if the business-as-usual approach continues, the annual GHG emissions from Hong Kong's air transport sector could rise to around 30,000 kT of CO2-eq by 2030, marking an increase of over 37% from about 21,800 kT of CO2-eq recorded in 2018. Consequently, it is crucial for Hong Kong to transition towards a more efficient and intelligent aviation system, which should include the electrification of short-haul operations, such as the use of electric unmanned aerial vehicles for transporting goods and passengers between Hong Kong and its neighboring cities in mainland China.
Perspectives
Writing this article was a delightful experience, as my co-author and I delved into the modeling of aviation kerosene consumption and its associated GHG emissions. This article highlights the urgent need for transformational changes for Hong Kong to successfully meet China's dual carbon goals. Simply making superficial promises and adopting the so-called SAF, which does not truly reduce net GHG emissions, will not yield positive results.
Professor W.M. To
Macao Polytechnic University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Modeling of Greenhouse Gases Emissions from Hong Kong’s Air Transport Industry: 2011 to 2030, Gases, August 2025, MDPI AG,
DOI: 10.3390/gases5030019.
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