What is it about?
While austerity measures have restricted NHS capacity and increased delayed discharges form hospital, the fundamental trends to increased demand continue unabated. Additional demand also appears to be arising from a series of novel infectious outbreak. This short article updates paramedics regarding recent research and how these novel outbreaks lead to sudden step-like increases in demand which endure for 12 months before abating.
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Why is it important?
Cause and effect are highly important in formulating correct policies to address capacity issues in health and social care. Were a genuine infectious source to be ignored then policy endeavors will only achieve partial success.
Perspectives
Politicians have been blaming the health and social care systems for failure to contain demand. There is now an eight year series of studies on the financial and operational consequences of these novel outbreaks, which has been totally ignored by government agencies. See http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Heavy workload during the 2016/17 winter was entirely predictable, Journal of Paramedic Practice, February 2017, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/jpar.2017.9.2.52.
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