What is it about?
A hidden pattern of high/low shifts characterise the trends in NHS sickness absence. The same pattern also occurs in emergency medical admissions and all-cause mortality. The pattern occurs at small-area level as well as at regional and national level. It has all the characteristics of a type of disease outbreak, but unlike other disease outbreaks characterised thus far.
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Why is it important?
These patterns are replicated in NHS costs and hence in NHS cost pressures. Unless the source of the pattern is identified it will keep re-occurring. Up to the present the NHS has been blamed for the cost and activity consequences of these repeating patterns.
Perspectives
If an agent is capable of simultaneously affecting medical admissions, deaths and sickness absence it is highly likely that it is infectious. Sadly, government agencies in the UK are showing no interest.
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: NHS sickness absence in England: hidden patterns, British Journal of Healthcare Management, April 2020, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2019.0026.
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