What is it about?
The Private Finance Initiative (PFI) ushered in an era where 'affordability' took priority over genuine calculation of required bed numbers in new hospitals. This article explains how bed calculations can be manipulated to give any answer required, rather than the correct or real answer. Put simply, both future average length of stay (LOS) and demand (admissions) are underestimated using a variety of seemingly plausible arguments which the public would not be sufficiently informed to detect the glaring faults in such arguments.
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Why is it important?
The flow of patients in a hospital is dependant on the correct number of beds. Too few beds and flow is impeded and all manner of inefficiencies ensue. The explosion in the size of the inpatient waiting list in England is just one manifestation of the effects of too few beds.
Perspectives
My own studies on hospital bed numbers and occupancy span the PFI period, hence, it was not a case that the information for correct bed planning was unavailable, it was just ignored. Yet another case of the (seriously) unintended effects of policy. An extended series of articles regarding bed numbers and optimum occupancy, along with forecasting demand can be found at http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf Also see further studies published in the International Journal of Health Planning and Management.
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Have doctors and the public been misled regarding hospital bed requirements?, British Journal of Healthcare Management, July 2019, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2018.0050.
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