What is it about?

Midnight occupied beds in the NHS have not changed significantly over an 18 year period, despite huge reductions in available bed numbers. Growth in genuine overnight stay patients is around 0%, however, this does not include the contribution from a rapidly escalating inpatient waiting list. Same day stay 'overnight' admissions are showing moderate growth, but high growth in medicine and A&E (assessment). Day case admissions are growing markedly especially in the specialties with an inflammatory basis for disease (Pain management, medicine, etc). Growth in the surgical group has stalled since 2011/12 presumably due to insufficient day surgery facilities.

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Why is it important?

The declining bed numbers in the NHS have occurred without any evidence supporting the decrease. The only 'evidence' has been that manufactured on the basis of policy-based evidence.

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This is part of a wider study into NHS demand and the factors regulating growth in demand. See http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf

Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

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This page is a summary of: Growth in NHS admissions and length of stay: A policy-based evidence fiasco, British Journal of Healthcare Management, December 2017, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2017.23.12.603.
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