Emergency admissions rise when deaths rise

What is it about?

There has been an unexplained increase in deaths in the UK since 2011 and this increase has been matched by around 11.8 additional emergency admissions per additional death. This ratio has remained constant since 2008. The ratio of emergency admissions per death does show seasonal behavior.

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Why is it important?

The relationship between healthcare resource consumption in the last year of life is well documented over three decades and many countries. This is called the nearness to death effect. This crucial relationship between the marginal changes in emergency admissions and the marginal changes in deaths is of fundamental importance to understanding healthcare demand and capacity. Current models forecasting acute demand and bed numbers need urgent revision.

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