What is it about?
It goes without saying that your forecasts are only as good as your grasp of the underlying mechanisms for growth. Small-area trends in emergency medical admissions show trends which defy currently accepted mechanisms for growth.
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Why is it important?
Small-area behavior is more consistent with infectious outbreaks.
Perspectives
Government agencies such as NHS England continue to spew forth policy-correct interpretations which contradict the reality of the actual trends. Part of a longer series seeking to elucidate the real mechanisms for growth, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010?Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Forecasting medical emergency admissions, British Journal of Healthcare Management, February 2015, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2015.21.2.98.
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