What is it about?
The year-to-year volatility in age-specialty combinations was analysed from 1998/99 to 2012/13. Volatility increases with decreasing size and the average year-to-year volatility is around +/- 25% for 100 admissions and around +/- 1.5% at 1 million admissions. Some specialty-age combinations show higher volatility.
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Why is it important?
Whichever way you cut the cake, the volatility in NHS commissioning is unacceptably high, and only reduces to acceptable (long-term) levels for very large commissioners.
Perspectives
Government agencies have been reluctant to admit to the reality of financial risk. Instead they blame the NHS for something over which it has no control. Part of a longer series of studies on the real-world financial risk in health care commissioning, see: http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf A 4-Part series on Financial and Capacity risk in Healthcare has updated the concepts in this area. See Journal of Health Care Finance, winter 2021 http://www.healthfinancejournal.com/~junland/index.php/johcf/index
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Financial volatility in NHS contracts, British Journal of Healthcare Management, October 2014, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2014.20.10.489.
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