What is it about?
Immunity and optimum immune function is acquired during childhood and gradually eroded in old age. It should therefore be unsurprising the the long-term volatility associated with various common condition is highest in these two groups. Hence they dictate the financial risk of the primary care organization/purchaser
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Why is it important?
The relative sensitivity of different conditions to the environment (temperature, air quality, infections, etc) is reflected in higher intrinsic volatility in both admissions and costs. The natural volatility is very high.
Perspectives
The introduction of the purchaser/provider split in England back in the early 1990's almost assumed that volatility must be low, and that any person with a spreadsheet could forecast demand. Financial failure could then be blamed on the NHS rather than the real culprits. Part of a longer series, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Age and financial risk in healthcare costs, British Journal of Healthcare Management, July 2012, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2012.18.7.388.
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