What is it about?
The year-to-year volatility in health care expenditure for a defined population is very high and increases as the size of the population reduces. Expenditure over time also shows evidence for cyclic behavior.
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Why is it important?
In England, various primary care led initiatives such as Clinical Commissioning Groups were launched by the government in an effort to contain costs. The government seemingly omitted to mention that fact that the underlying financial risk was high and that cycles of surplus and deficit may be the norm.
Perspectives
Part of an extended series of papers investigating the financial risk in health care commissioning, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf A 4-Part series on financial and capacity risk in healthcare has been subsequently published in Journal of Health Care Finance, winter 2021 http://www.healthfinancejournal.com/~junland/index.php/johcf/index
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Why is ‘real world’ financial risk so high?, British Journal of Healthcare Management, April 2012, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2012.18.4.216.
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