What is it about?
Studies show that somewhere between 55% to 75% of a persons lifetime use of a hospital bed occurs in the last year of life, and that the bulk of this occurs in the last 22 weeks of life. A count of deaths then becomes a proxy measure for the marginal changes in admissions (especially emergency) and bed occupancy.
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Why is it important?
Despite widely different demographic structures the ratio of occupied beds per death in Australia and England remained remarkably constant over a 15 year period. It would appear that the approach of death is the principal driver for hospital bed demand and demography only plays a secondary role.
Perspectives
So much of health care policy is crafted around flawed science with resulting flawed outcomes. This is part of a larger series on understanding hospital bed numbers and bed occupancy, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Is demand for beds about death or demography?, British Journal of Healthcare Management, May 2011, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2011.17.5.190.
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