What is it about?
Patients in the English NHS have been offered a guaranteed 18-week maximum wait from GP referral to operation (if required). Assuming that future demand can be forecast, a capacity margin is still required to cope with statistical variation around the expected average.
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Why is it important?
Good planning requires access to appropriate tools.
Perspectives
Part of a wider series on forecasting demand and capacity planning in health care, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
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This page is a summary of: What next for 18 weeks?, British Journal of Healthcare Management, August 2009, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2009.15.8.43528.
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