What is it about?
Significant uncertainties are common in environmental assessments (EAs) of oil sands projects. They relate to the project's predicted impacts, cumulative effects, the success of mitigation measures, and Aboriginal engagement, among others. Using an example of an oil sands extraction project from Northern Alberta, the study reveals that some uncertainties were disclosed but at times downplayed to render the project more palatable through the EA process. The authors provide recommendations to improve uncertainty disclosure and communication in EA and enhance the consideration of uncertainties in decision-making.
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Why is it important?
Adequate disclosure and consideration of uncertainties promotes transparency of the EA process, helps ensure the accountability of proponents and decision makers, and contributes to the legitimacy of EA and the acceptability of proposed development projects. The neglect of uncertainties leads to unreliable impact predictions or ineffective mitigation measures. The implications of hiding uncertainties includes the disregard of more sustainable project alternatives and the loss of public confidence in EA. Estimates of the significance of adverse effects may be biased, which may result in decisions that do not reflect the public interest. The findings indicate that while there is a perception that proponents and consultants downplay risks and uncertainties in their reporting, overall, EA participants believe that uncertainty disclosure is necessary and would be largely advantageous to EA processes and decision-makers.
Perspectives
Our work showed that proponents need to be more upfront regarding uncertainties, especially about impacts and mitigation, but review panels must also be willing to explore those uncertainties when making decisions about mitigation commitments and setting conditions. The Joslyn oil sands project hearing process could have been an opportunity to confront uncertainties publicly; however, while many uncertainties were disclosed, they were not explored during the hearing process to the extent desired by project stakeholders to resolve such uncertainties. Some of the main uncertainties in EAs relate to values, judgments, and preferences expressed during the assessment and review process. Not confronting such uncertainties adversely affects the quality of EA and public trust in the process.
Jochen Jaeger
Concordia University Montreal
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Sources of uncertainties in environmental assessment: Lessons about uncertainty disclosure and communication from an oil sands extraction project in Northern Alberta, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, May 2019, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2019.1579973.
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