What is it about?

We present the results of two surveys that investigate subjects’ judgments about what can be known or justifiably believed about lottery outcomes on the basis of statistical evidence, testimonial evidence, and “mixed” evidence, while considering possible anchoring and priming effects.

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Why is it important?

The survey shows how people's knowledge judgement is often affected by contextual features and that people judge that they don't know the outcome of a lottery purely based on statistical evidence. However, people think that they are justified in believing the outcome of a lottery based purely on statistical evidence and "justified belief" judgements does track underlying probabilities. Moreover, the work offers a wide ranging study of the so-called "lottery intuition" that plays an important role in philosophical theorising, in particular in epistemology


A great collaboration between a behavioural decision-theorist and two philosophers, with some surprising results that challenged our own preconception on that matter.

Philip Ebert
University of Stirling

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Lottery judgments: A philosophical and experimental study, Philosophical Psychology, September 2017, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/09515089.2017.1367767.
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