Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States

What is it about?

“We asked a representative sample of the American public whether they would be willing to pay extra taxes to support programs that would reduce gun violence by 20% in their state. We inferred an average willingness to pay of over $700 per household, which multiplies up to near $100 billion for the nation. Despite the fact that gun violence is very highly concentrated among Black males under age 45 (who constitute just 6% of the US population), the survey responses indicated that a broad cross-section of the American public believe that gun violence is a serious problem and are willing to pay a substantial amount for programs to reduce it. In fact, the negative effects of gun violence are not just to the immediate victims and their loved ones, but are shared widely. Concern about the possibility of victimization affects peace of mind and tangible decisions of where to live, work, and shop, with documented effects on economic development, property values, and mental health. Our approach to valuing a reduction in gun violence, based on a summation of individual preferences, is in line with federal standards for estimating program benefits, and very different than the method ("Cost of Illness") typically used in public health assessments, which assigns a value to each victim, rather than considering the widespread impacts of the anticipation of gun violence.

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Why is it important?

This article provides a new estimate of the costs of gun violence, twice as large as a recent estimate based on the cost-of-illness method. It is directly relevant to assessing the value of programs that would be effective in reducing gun violence. And it provides documentation for a recent statement by the U.S. Surgeon General, that gun violence is a serious problem for a large segment of the population.

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