What is it about?
Reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions is a key strategy to combat global warming. However, it is reported that CO₂ mitigation may lead to more frequent El Niño events - shortened periodicity - compared to both the present climate and periods of rising CO₂. This indicates that while reducing emissions helps mitigating climate change, it may also increase the occurrence of extreme climate events like El Niño, which can have widespread impacts around the world.
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Why is it important?
The change in El Niño under CO₂ mitigation is caused by the nonlinear nature of deep ocean circulation expected to emerge in the subpolar regions. This suggests that complex responses originating in the subpolar regions can propagate to the tropics, potentially resulting in irreversible global changes.
Perspectives
Climate mitigation policies may bring not only positive effects but also unintended negative consequences. Reducing CO₂ emissions before global warming worsens is essential.
Dr. Tomoik Iwakiri
University of Hawai'i at Manoa
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Abrupt shift of El Niño periodicity under CO
2
mitigation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, June 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2426048122.
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