Other
Policy
Contribution into foresight report - an estimated 2000 lives can be saved as well as $10M in losses if hurricane tracking is improved and predictions for timing
What is it about?
Insurance companies are increasingly paying for damage caused to property as a result of hurricane activity in the Southern United States. Changes in the climate are blamed for the changing weather patterns and this has a knock-on effect on global insurance premiums which cascades down to individuals seeking personal insurance. By adopting advanced mathematical techniques already applied to different market sectors, this project seeks to establish a practical application of such techniques to assist the insurance industry better model the extent of likely damage to communities as a result of hurricanes. This is a test project to demonstrate Kudos Pro.
Why is it important?
The primary purpose of a hurricane forecast model is to predict a hurricane's track and/or intensity (and sometimes rainfall) for the next 3-5 days (although longer lead times are possible). Other forecast models are designed specifically to forecast the impacts of hurricanes, such as storm surge. This is critical to having a better understanding of the likely path and therefore likely destruction caused by the hurricane.
Perspectives
I have always held a fascination for extreme weather events and the opportunity to spend time researching a personal interest, in order to create tangible impact is incredibly important to me. Hurricanes, while beautiful can also be deadly yet home owners should not be penalised by blunt instruments used in modelling for insurance purposes. This research aims to fairly allocate risk factors according to real world data and thereby make the insurance process more equitable
Sean
Newell
University of Cambridge
