All Stories

  1. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity for Hurricane Track Forecast Sensitivity and Flight Planning

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, March 2025, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  2. The THINICE Field Campaign: Interactions between Arctic Cyclones, Tropopause Polar Vortices, Clouds, and Sea Ice in Summer

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  3. Indirect Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data on Data Assimilaiton

    Article • September 2024, Wiley

    Ryan Torn

  4. Dust, Convection, Winds and Waves: The 2022 NASA CPEX-CV Campaign

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Kelly Nunez Ocasio, Quinton Lawton, Ryan Torn

  5. Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data on the Assimilation of Satellite Radiance Data in GFS

    Article • Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, September 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  6. An Assessment of Dropsonde Sampling Strategies for Atmospheric River Reconnaissance

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, March 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  7. Verification of the Global Forecast System, North American Mesoscale Forecast System, and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Near-Surface Forecasts by Use of the New York State Mesonet

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  8. Advancing Atmospheric River Science and Inspiring Future Development of the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, January 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  9. Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products

    Article • Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, December 2023, Elsevier

    Ryan Torn

  10. Unusual tracks: Statistical, controlling factors and model prediction

    Article • Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, December 2023, Elsevier

    Ryan Torn

  11. Forecast evaluation of the North Pacific jet stream using AR Recon dropwindsondes

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, August 2023, Wiley

    Ryan Torn

  12. A Tale of Two Vortex Evolutions: Using a High-Resolution Ensemble to Assess the Impacts of Ventilation on a Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Event

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, January 2023, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  13. Factors Influencing the Track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the West Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS Ensemble

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, January 2023, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  14. Evaluation of Independent Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (iSPPT) Scheme on HWRF-Based Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  15. The Sensitivity of Downstream Ridge Building Forecasts to Upstream Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty Using MPAS

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  16. An Analog Comparison between Rapidly and Slowly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, August 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  17. Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data on the Assimilation of Satellite Data in GFS

    Article • March 2022, Wiley

    Ryan Torn

  18. Process-Based Evaluation of Stochastic Perturbed Microphysics Parameterization Tendencies on Ensemble Forecasts of Heavy Rainfall Events

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, January 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  19. Sensitivity of Forecast Uncertainty to Different Microphysics Schemes within a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during SoWMEX-IOP8

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, December 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  20. A Comparison of Arctic and Atlantic Cyclone Predictability

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, November 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  21. Validation of HWRF-based Probabilistic TC Wind and Precipitation forecasts

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, September 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  22. Validation of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

    Article • Atmosphere, March 2021, MDPI AG

    Ryan Torn

  23. Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  24. Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, August 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  25. Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, July 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Molly Smith, Ryan Torn

  26. A Feature-Based Approach to Classifying Summertime Potential Vorticity Streamers Linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in the North Atlantic Basin

    Article • Journal of Climate, July 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  27. NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Experiment Observations and Forecast Impacts

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, July 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn, Hui Christophersen

  28. Using persistent homology to quantify a diurnal cycle in hurricanes

    Article • Pattern Recognition Letters, May 2020, Elsevier

    Ryan Torn

  29. Evaluation of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies on Convective-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Heavy Rainfall Events in New York and Taiwan

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, December 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  30. Warm Conveyor Belts within cyclones drive forecast uncertainty in weather predictions downstream

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, November 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Jeremy Berman, Ryan Torn

  31. Investigating the Factors That Contribute to African Easterly Wave Intensity Forecast Uncertainty in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, April 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  32. The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the Midlatitude Flow, Downstream Impacts, and Implications for Predictability

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, April 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Julia H. Keller, Ryan Torn

  33. Impacts of Targeted AERI and Doppler Lidar Wind Retrievals on Short-Term Forecasts of the Initiation and Early Evolution of Thunderstorms

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, April 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  34. A Hypothesis for the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, December 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  35. Tropical Cyclone Track Sensitivity in Deformation Steering Flow

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  36. African Easterly Wave Forecast Verification and Its Relation to Convective Errors within the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, April 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  37. Diagnosing Conditions Associated with Large Intensity Forecast Errors in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  38. A Comparison of the Downstream Predictability Associated with ET and Baroclinic Cyclones

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, November 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  39. Sensitivity of Northern Great Plains Convection Forecasts to Upstream and Downstream Forecast Errors

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, June 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  40. Effects of Boundary Layer Vertical Mixing on the Evolution of Hurricanes over Land

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, June 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  41. Climatological Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  42. A Climatology of Central American Gyres

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  43. Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  44. Impact of Assimilating Dropsonde Observations from MPEX on Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather Events

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  45. Evaluation of Atmosphere and Ocean Initial Condition Uncertainty and Stochastic Exchange Coefficients on Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, September 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  46. Diagnosis of the Source and Evolution of Medium-Range Forecast Errors for Extratropical Cyclone Joachim

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, August 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  47. An Ensemble Approach to Investigate Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Sheared Environments. Part II: Ophelia (2011)

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, April 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  48. An Ensemble Approach to Investigate Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Sheared Environments. Part I: Katia (2011)

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, January 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  49. The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn, Robert Trapp

  50. Sensitivity of Central Oklahoma Convection Forecasts to Upstream Potential Vorticity Anomalies during Two Strongly Forced Cases during MPEX

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  51. Comparison of Wave Packets Associated with Extratropical Transition and Winter Cyclones

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  52. Modeling the effects of dust-radiative forcing on the movement of HurricaneHelene(2006)

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, April 2015, Wiley

    Ryan Torn

  53. Diagnosis of the Source of GFS Medium-Range Track Errors in Hurricane Sandy (2012)

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, January 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  54. Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, October 2014, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  55. The Impact of Targeted Dropwindsonde Observations on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts of Four Weak Systems during PREDICT

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, August 2014, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  56. Evaluation of the Advanced Hurricane WRF Data Assimilation System for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, February 2013, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  57. The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, January 2013, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  58. The Influence of Shallow Convection on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, July 2012, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  59. Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Information

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, June 2012, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  60. The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools, and Some First Results

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, February 2012, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  61. High-Resolution Hurricane Forecasts

    Article • Computing in Science & Engineering, January 2011, Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE)

    Ryan Torn

  62. Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, December 2010, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  63. Performance of a Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) during the NOAA High-Resolution Hurricane Test

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, December 2010, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  64. Diagnosis of the Downstream Ridging Associated with Extratropical Transition Using Short-Term Ensemble Forecasts

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, March 2010, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  65. Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis Applied to African Easterly Waves

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2010, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  66. Initial Condition Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transitions Determined Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  67. Ensemble Data Assimilation Applied to RAINEX Observations of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, September 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  68. The Data Assimilation Research Testbed: A Community Facility

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  69. Performance Characteristics of a Pseudo-Operational Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, October 2008, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  70. Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, February 2008, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  71. A Data Assimilation Case Study Using a Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, April 2007, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  72. Boundary Conditions for Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filters

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, September 2006, American Meteorological Society

    Ryan Torn

  73. Surface Tensions and Surface Segregation of n-Butanol in Sulfuric Acid

    Article • The Journal of Physical Chemistry, June 2002, American Chemical Society (ACS)

    Ryan Torn