What is it about?
The Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB) defines the ascent of warm, moist air within extratropical cyclones. This ascent has been hypothesized to be important toward the prediction of the downstream jet stream, however no formal connection has been established. This study evaluates the linkage between the WCB and the prediction of the downstream jet stream using ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF model and sensitivity analysis.
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Why is it important?
This work highlights the physical mechanisms by which the WCB impacts the downstream jet stream. This study is the first of its kind to explore this linkage using ensemble forecasts and to quantify the relationship using novel statistical methods.
Perspectives
This study is the first part of my PhD thesis and had an immense impact on my graduate education because of the real-world impact of this case, which led to intense flooding in Italy and several fatalities. This work formally addresses the linkages between WCBs and downstream predictability, while also highlighting what researchers and forecasters can do in order to reduce uncertainty about what will happen after a WCB event. My hope is that it will draw our attention to these weather phenomena and save lives.
Jeremy Berman
State University of New York
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The Impact of Initial Condition and Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide in an ECWMF Case Study, Monthly Weather Review, November 2019, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0333.1.
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