All Stories

  1. Pressure: reimagining the D‐Day forecast through machine learning

    Article • Weather, September 2026, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  2. Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, August 2025, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  3. Diversity of Stratospheric Error Growth Across Subseasonal Prediction Systems

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, May 2024, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  4. Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán

    Article • npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, April 2024, Springer Science + Business Media

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Prof Suzanne L Gray

  5. The tropical influence on sub‐seasonal predictability of wintertime stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, January 2024, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  6. Skilful sub‐seasonal forecasts of aggregated temperature over Europe

    Article • Meteorological Applications, November 2023, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  7. A statistical perspective on the signal‐to‐noise paradox

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, March 2023, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  8. Impact of climate change on hospital admissions: a case study of the Royal Berkshire Hospital in the UK

    Article • Meteorological Applications, July 2022, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  9. Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, March 2022, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  10. A Minimal Model to Diagnose the Contribution of the Stratosphere to Tropospheric Forecast Skill

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, December 2021, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Simon H. Lee, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  11. A minimal model to diagnose the contribution of the stratosphere to tropospheric forecast skill

    Article • July 2021, Wiley

    Dr Simon H. Lee, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  12. Pattern‐based conditioning enhances sub‐seasonal prediction skill of European national energy variables

    Article • Meteorological Applications, July 2021, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  13. Non-Linear Response to Global Climate Change of Temperature-Related Mortality Risk in England and Wales

    Article • January 2021, Elsevier

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  14. Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK: a pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, December 2020, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  15. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

    Article • Reviews of Geophysics, November 2020, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  16. Impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on United Kingdom mortality

    Article • Atmospheric Science Letters, October 2020, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Dr Simon H. Lee

  17. Representation of the Scandinavia‐Greenland Pattern and its Relationship with the Polar Vortex in S2S Forecast Models

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, August 2020, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Dr Simon H. Lee

  18. Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on United Kingdom mortality

    Article • July 2020, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Dr Simon H. Lee

  19. Assimilation of atmospheric infrasound data to constrain tropospheric and stratospheric winds

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, May 2020, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  20. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

    Article • May 2020, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  21. Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, February 2020, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  22. Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

    Article • January 2020, Center for Open Science

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  23. Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

    Article • Meteorological Applications, December 2019, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  24. ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, November 2019, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  25. The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction Part I: Predictability of the stratosphere

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, November 2019, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  26. The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction Part II: Predictability arising from stratosphere ‐ troposphere coupling

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, November 2019, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  27. Predictability of Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric warmings and their surface impacts

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, August 2019, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  28. When and where do ECMWF seasonal forecast systems exhibit anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio?

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, August 2019, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  29. Abrupt stratospheric vortex weakening associated with North Atlantic anticyclonic wave breaking

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, July 2019, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Dr Simon H. Lee

  30. Designing Environmental Uncertainty Information for Experts and Non‐Experts: Does Data Presentation Affect Users' Decisions and Interpretations?

    Article • Meteorological Applications, July 2019, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  31. Storm naming and forecast communication: A case study of Storm Doris

    Article • Meteorological Applications, March 2019, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  32. Meteorological source variability in atmospheric gravity wave parameters derived from a tropical infrasound station

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, March 2019, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Professor Giles Harrison

  33. Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and its Climate Impacts with a Multi‐Model Ensemble

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, December 2018, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  34. Best scale for detecting the effects of stratospheric sulphate aerosol geoengineering on surface temperature

    Article • Earth s Future, November 2018, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  35. The influence of the stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, August 2018, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  36. Developing a quick guide on presenting data and uncertainty

    Article • Weather, September 2017, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  37. Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, August 2015, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  38. Do location-specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

    Article • Meteorological Applications, May 2015, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  39. Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, January 2014, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  40. The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on Surface Climate

    Article • Journal of Climate, April 2013, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  41. On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low‐top versions of the CMIP5 models

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, March 2013, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Steven C Hardiman, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Bo Christiansen

  42. Final warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in high- and low-top CMIP5 models

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, March 2013, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  43. Problem-Based Learning Approaches in Meteorology

    Article • Journal of Geoscience Education, February 2013, National Association of Geoscience Teachers

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  44. CORRIGENDUM

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, December 2012, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Steven C Hardiman, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  45. The Effect of Climate Change on the Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, August 2012, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Steven C Hardiman, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  46. Trends in Austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, July 2012, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  47. Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, June 2012, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  48. Correction to “Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering aerosols”

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, May 2012, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  49. The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry-climate models

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, March 2012, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Eugene Rozanov

  50. Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering aerosols

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, December 2011, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  51. CORRIGENDUM

    Article • Journal of Climate, November 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  52. Improved predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, September 2011, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Steven C Hardiman, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Eugene Rozanov

  53. The structure and evolution of the stratospheric vortex in response to natural forcings

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, August 2011, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  54. Spatiotemporal Behavior of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts*

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, August 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  55. Characterizing the Variability and Extremes of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices Using 2D Moment Analysis

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, June 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  56. Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, March 2011, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Sandip Dhomse, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Eugene Rozanov

  57. On the Use of Geometric Moments to Examine the Continuum of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, March 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  58. Lewis Fry Richardson's forecast factory - for real

    Article • Weather, January 2011, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  59. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

    Article • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics", October 2010, Copernicus GmbH

    Dr Sandip Dhomse, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Professor Ed Hawkins, Eugene Rozanov

  60. Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

    Article • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics", October 2010, Copernicus GmbH

    Dr Sandip Dhomse, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Eugene Rozanov

  61. Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

    Article • Climate Dynamics, October 2010, Springer Science + Business Media

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Dr Erik W Kolstad

  62. Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, August 2010, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  63. Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, March 2010, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  64. On the Sensitivity of Annular Mode Dynamics to Stratospheric Radiative Time Scales

    Article • Journal of Climate, January 2010, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  65. Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

    Article • Climate Dynamics, October 2009, Springer Science + Business Media

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  66. Stratospheric Communication of El Niño Teleconnections to European Winter

    Article • Journal of Climate, August 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  67. A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part III: Polar Vortex Evolution and Vertical Structure

    Article • Journal of Climate, March 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  68. The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, August 2008, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  69. The Effect of Lower Stratospheric Shear on Baroclinic Instability

    Article • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, February 2007, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  70. On the influence of stratospheric water vapor changes on the tropospheric circulation

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, January 2006, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  71. The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, July 2005, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  72. Sensitivity of tropospheric forecasts to stratospheric initial conditions

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, July 2004, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  73. Stratospheric influence on baroclinic lifecycles and its connection to the Arctic Oscillation

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, January 2004, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez

  74. Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, October 2003, Wiley

    Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez