What is it about?
This comprehensive policy review investigates the multiple failings in demographic forecasting of health care activity and required bed numbers. It is concluded that end-of-life (irrespective of age at death) has a far greater impact on bed utilization. Hence the absolute number of deaths in a location is an excellent proxy for end of life associated bed demand. The workload associated with end of life varies 5-fold between different locations.
Featured Image
Why is it important?
The last year of life and more specifically the last 22 weeks account for somewhere between 45% to 75% of lifetime hospital admissions/bed utilization. Acute intervention in the last 22 weeks is usually futile in terms of restoring the person to health. For persons in the last 22 weeks of life health care needs to be switched to a more palliative care model.
Perspectives
To varying degrees acute hospitals have become bogged down in the provision of palliative care for those who are shortly about to die. This is totally the wrong way to end life and is hugely expensive. Part of a longer series investigating the relationships between death and hospital utilization, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The Demography Myth: How Demographic Forecasting Underestimates Hospital Admissions, and Creates the Illusion that Fewer Hospital Beds and Community-based bed Equivalents, will be Required in the Future, British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research, January 2017, Sciencedomain International,
DOI: 10.9734/bjmmr/2017/29984.
You can read the full text:
Resources
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
