We analyze the consequence of Brexit, through the lens of a disintegration process.

What is it about?

We analyze the consequence of British voters’ decision to withdraw from the EU, through the lens of a disintegration process by measuring the degree of vulnerability of Poland and other EU-27 countries. Through this approach, they provide an economically rigorous and critical assessment of Brexit, with a focus on the ranking of potential winners and losers.

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Why is it important?

We contribute to the ongoing debate regarding the Brexit negotiation process by providing strong arguments in favor of selected scenarios, and by identifying the potential winners and losers that would exist under such scenarios. While the traditional, purely economic approach to assessing Brexit’s impact suggests that many EU countries should hardly be affected, their analysis, through the lens of the disintegration process, suggests that mostly small EU countries are much more likely to suffer adverse consequences of a hard Brexit. The analysis provided here makes two important contributions. First, it specifies the relative position of the EU-27 countries in the ranking of Brexit losers in three different scenarios for the post-Brexit arrangement between the EU and the UK. In many EU countries, there should hardly be discernible impacts on macroeconomic variables according to the applied purely economic approach to assessing Brexit’s impact.

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