What is it about?
This paper examines the trends in emergency admissions in England. Periods of explosive growth dominate the trend. These periods of explosive growth only ever occur during periods of unexplained higher deaths. Each event is accompanied by small area spread of both deaths and emergency admissions indicative of a new type of infectious agent. The huge increase in demand during the winter of 2016/17 was entirely predictable given an outbreak of this agent earlier in 2016.
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Why is it important?
Government policy for the NHS depends on the correct interpretation of why emergency admissions are increasing.
Perspectives
Alas, policy based evidence (as opposed to evidence based policy) is alive and well in the NHS. It would appear that no government agency is inclined to point out that the trends in emergency admissions defy all current explanations. Part of a longer series of papers, see: http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Rising Emergency Admissions in the UK and the Elephant in the Room, Epidemiology Open Access, January 2016, OMICS Publishing Group,
DOI: 10.4172/2161-1165.1000261.
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