What is it about?
Can economic growth occur while carbon dioxide emissions actually decline? This study examines data from 79 countries between 2000 and 2025 to investigate the conditions associated with this outcome, known as absolute decoupling. We combine traditional statistical methods with explainable machine learning to identify important patterns in economic growth, energy consumption, and energy sources. The results show that successful decoupling is closely associated with improvements in energy efficiency and reductions in fossil fuel dependence. Simply expanding renewable energy is not sufficient when fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy system.
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Why is it important?
Governments face the challenge of supporting economic development while meeting climate commitments. This research provides evidence that energy transition strategies should consider actual reductions in fossil fuel dependence alongside renewable energy expansion. The findings can inform climate policy, energy planning, and the evaluation of progress toward lower-carbon economic growth.
Perspectives
Economic growth and environmental progress are not necessarily incompatible, but their relationship is not automatic. Our research suggests that the composition and efficiency of energy systems are central to understanding when emissions can fall while economies expand. Effective climate strategies should therefore focus on measurable structural changes, not renewable capacity alone.
Dr. Ricardo Teruel-Gutiérrez
Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Modeling Absolute CO2–GDP Decoupling in the Context of the Global Energy Transition: Evidence from Econometrics and Explainable Machine Learning, Sustainability, January 2026, MDPI AG,
DOI: 10.3390/su18020758.
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