What is it about?

How much will future mortality improve in developing countries compared to the improvement in developed countries? Here we use deep learning to link the two improvement trends and obtain more precise estimates of future longevity gains. The illustration predicts the mortality improvements of China, Brazil and Nigeria using improvement data from 9 developed countries: Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, the UK, the US, and Japan.

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Why is it important?

Human mortality has been improving over the last decades in several countries, and in particular in developing regions. Although the resulting increased life expectancy is generally seen as a positive achievement, it generates also new challenges, such as adverse longevity risks for life insurance companies and pension schemes. Studying the extent of such longevity improvements is fundamental to ensure the sustainability of life insurance and pension funds.


This study was initiated some years ago already, when Dr. Xu visited Concordia University in Montreal as a postdoctoral fellow. He was fortunate to find full-time employment before the study was complete. So, it is nice to see this paper finally come out, despite the delay.

Distinguished Professor Emeritus Jose Garrido
Concordia University

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: LSTM-Based Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Developing Countries, Risks, February 2024, MDPI AG,
DOI: 10.3390/risks12020027.
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