Have we been estimating gene flow incorrectly?

What is it about?

The Agulhas Current in south-eastern Africa flows very close to the coast, and inshore dispersal is unlikely. Nonetheless, many previous studies have identified bidirectional gene flow and even passive dispersal against this current. Using a simple mitochondrial DNA data-set, we demonstrate how coalescent samplers (such as MIGRATE-N) produce questionable dispersal estimates that can result in inappropriate management practices.

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Why is it important?

It is likely that gene flow is often estimated incorrectly. The programmes used to estimate migration rates do not reliably distinguish between ancestral polymorphism and migration when populations are not strongly differentiated. To be on the safe side, such programmes should only be applied when the populations studied have diverged sufficiently long ago that lineage sorting is complete.

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