Understanding the Russian invasion of Ukraine better with conflict escalation

What is it about?

Russia invaded the Donbas region in Ukraine in August 2014. Researchers have suggested several causes for violence in this region. But, so far, there is no one theory that can tell us which of these causes are likely. In this article, the author provides such a theory. It is based on a model called “conflict escalation.” The model describes the conflict as an escalation ladder. Each step on this ladder represents a development beyond a threshold. The escalation consists of six high points of violence or “critical junctures.” These junctures developed between April and August 2014. It began with armed building occupations in Donetsk and Luhansk. Next, fighting broke out in Sloviansk. After this, armed clashes occurred in Mariupol. The fighting then spread to other regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Following this, tanks and heavy artillery appeared in mid June. At the last juncture, Russia defeated the Ukrainian military and invaded Donbas. The author suggests that any explanation for the conflict should explain these six critical junctures.

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Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash

Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash

Why is it important?

There are several possible explanations for the Donbas conflict. But, they are valid only in their own frame of reference. Without a common framework, it is impossible to assess the causes behind the conflict. This study has now offered such a framework. It suggests a robust method for assessing the suggested causes. This can have important implications for framing policies. KEY TAKEAWAY: A new theory based on conflict escalation and critical junctures provides a framework for explaining the conflict in Donbas. The theory can explain other events of conflict as well.