What is it about?

We review the development of China's international sea freight throughput during the period 1980-2015 and use logistic model to estimate the future growth of international sea freight and the associated increase in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG).

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Why is it important?

Understanding changes in China's international sea freight throughput and the associated GHG emissions is important. We found that China's international sea freight increased from 353.2 billion ton-km in 1980 to 5423.6 billion ton-km in 2015. The associated GHG emission increased from 2.60 million tons CO2-eq in 1980 to 39.95 million tons CO2-eq in 2015. Although the logistic growth model indicated that China's international sea freight and container throughputs reached maximum growth rates in 2008, GHG emissions due to China's international sea freight would continuously increase to over 53 million tons in 2020.


The “One Belt, One Road” Initiative would definitely reignite the growth of China’s international sea transport over the near future. A more modest prediction, based on an increase of up to 5 percent in 5 years, has suggested that China’s international sea freight is likely to increase to 7,254 billion ton-km in 2020, resulting in GHG emissions increasing to over 53 million tons in 2020.

Professor W.M. To
Macao Polytechnic University

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: GHG emissions from China's international sea freight transport: a review and the future trend, International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, January 2018, Inderscience Publishers, DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2018.10014655.
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