How Agricultural Pollution Threatens Food Security and How Environmental Regulation Can Help

What is it about?

This study investigates how agricultural non-point source pollution (ANSP) affects food security (FS) in China and how environmental regulation (ER) moderates that relationship. Using panel data from 30 provinces over 2010–2022, the paper measures the intensity of ANSP and links it to provincial FS outcomes, while accounting for time and regional characteristics. The core finding is clear: intensifying ANSP is associated with a decline in FS. The deterioration is not uniform; the negative association is more pronounced in western provinces, as well as in grain-producing and grain-balanced regions where agricultural activity is extensive and environmental carrying capacity can be constrained. ER plays a positive moderating role—i.e., stronger regulatory effort mitigates the adverse link between ANSP and FS. Beyond local effects, the study documents spatial spillovers: ANSP in one province can weaken FS in neighboring provinces, implying cross-boundary externalities. Based on these results, the paper recommends that local governments strengthen oversight of diffuse agricultural pollutants, integrate agricultural technologies (e.g., precision input management, livestock waste treatment) with environmental supervision, optimize agricultural resource allocation, and prioritize ecological protection. Together, these actions can curb pollution pressures, stabilize food production capacity and safety, and advance green agricultural development aligned with long-term food security. It clarifies concepts: ANSP refers to diffuse pollutants from fields, orchards, aquaculture, and livestock operations, which move with rainfall and irrigation rather than through a single discharge point; FS concerns the capacity to ensure stable, safe, and sufficient supplies. Empirically, the study applies a province-year framework that absorbs unobserved time shocks and regional differences, enabling a focus on how variation in ANSP intensity relates to FS levels. The moderating role of ER is interpreted in practical terms: where rules, standards, monitoring, and enforcement are stronger, the adverse ANSP–FS linkage is weaker. The spatial lens is crucial because rivers, markets, and production networks connect provinces; pollution generated upstream or in a neighboring grain base can travel across boundaries and ultimately depress FS beyond the source region. Policy recommendations follow directly from the evidence: pair stricter supervision with service-oriented guidance; integrate precision input management, water-soil conservation, and manure reuse into routine oversight; and align agricultural planning with ecological redlines so that production growth does not erode the foundations of long-term FS. The analysis, therefore, situates pollution control as a necessary condition for green agricultural development rather than a competing objective.

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Photo by Mohamed Marey on Unsplash

Photo by Mohamed Marey on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Food security underpins national stability and public well-being, yet it is increasingly shaped by environmental quality. ANSP—from fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation runoff, and livestock waste—degrades soil and water systems, eroding yields, elevating production risks, and undermining the reliability of regional food supplies. By empirically linking higher ANSP intensity to lower FS across 30 provinces, this study provides policy-relevant evidence that environmental pressures are not peripheral but central to food system performance. The heterogeneity results warn that regions critical to grain supply, and less-resourced western areas, are especially vulnerable. The documented moderating role of ER indicates that effective regulation can cushion these harms, pointing to tangible levers that governments can use now. Finally, the presence of spatial spillovers highlights that FS is a shared outcome: one province’s pollution can weaken neighbors’ resilience. Hence, single-jurisdiction responses are insufficient; coordinated, regionally aware strategies are essential to secure food and advance green agricultural goals. By situating ANSP as a systemic risk to FS, the study helps reframe agricultural policy from short-term yield maximization toward durability of supply. The stronger vulnerability in western and core grain regions suggests that equity and national security considerations coincide: areas with thinner buffers or heavier production loads need targeted support. The ER moderating effect is actionable because it identifies an institutional lever that already exists; improvements in standards, monitoring coverage, and compliance assistance can be mobilized faster than large capital programs. Recognizing spatial spillovers guards against policy leakage: if one province tightens controls while neighbors do not, benefits dissipate. Treating FS as a shared regional good encourages joint planning across river basins and market corridors. For citizens, reduced ANSP supports safer food and cleaner environments; for producers, it stabilizes yields by protecting soils and water resources. For government, it aligns ecological civilization goals with food system resilience.

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