What is it about?
Dengue is a significant global threat. It is endemic in over 100 countries and is the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne disease worldwide; in 2022 nearly 3 million cases of dengue were reported globally, including 1,290 deaths. Most dengue infections are mild or do not show any symptoms, but severe cases often require hospitalization and can be life threatening; infections also tend to be more severe in those who have previously been infected. There is currently no specific treatment for dengue and preventing disease is key; TAK-003 (Qdenga) is the only approved vaccine that can be used for individuals regardless of whether they had dengue infection before. An epidemiological model was developed for TAK-003 to help design an efficient dengue vaccination program and assess the vaccine’s disease impact and value for money if implemented in a public immunization program. Using Thailand as an example, the model predicted that a national immunization program involving TAK-003 could prevent 41%−57% of symptomatic cases and 47%−70% of hospitalizations over 20 years depending on the size of the immunization program. If introducing TAK-003 into Thailand's national human papillomavirus immunization program at 11 years of age as a pragmatic approach (e.g. increase coverage and implementation efficiency), it is estimated that 44% of dengue disease cases and 53% of hospitalizations could be prevented, with savings of USD $1,346 million over 20 years.
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Why is it important?
Dengue is the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne disease worldwide; vaccination is a critical approach to reduce disease burden and protect vulnerable people in dengue endemic regions. To our knowledge, this is the first modelling study to look at how the dengue vaccine TAK-003 can be used in a national immunization program and its potential impact on reducing disease burden while saving money. Dengue endemic regions have different disease burdens across their population, vaccination programs should therefore be adapted to location specific pattern of dengue disease; modelling is an important tool to inform optimal vaccination program design.
Perspectives
Modelling dengue is challenging due to the complexity of the disease, which is also reflected in the challenges faced and length of time taken in the development of an effective and safe dengue vaccine TAK-003. Great efforts have been put into the development of a disease transmission model to ensure the model reflects disease burden as closely as possible to the location of interest, and correctly models the vaccine’s mechanism of action. After years of work on the model, we are very pleased to finally see in print the first modelling publication of TAK-003 to inform vaccination program design and assess vaccine impact; this work could potentially support the broad access of the dengue vaccine in countries most in need.
Jing Shen
Takeda Pharmaceuticals International
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Vaccination strategies, public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccine TAK-003: A modeling case study in Thailand, PLoS Medicine, June 2025, PLOS,
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004631.
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