What is it about?
Measles is highly contagious, with historically recognised transmissibility to generate an average of 12–18 infections per infectious case in a population without immune protection. This epidemiological measurement of measles transmissibility was derived from only a few studies in the high-income setting, whereas contributions of other contextual factors were rarely considered. In this recent analysis, we estimated measles transmissibility by fitting a mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccination to age-specific seroprevalence data across low- and middle-income settings. Our revised estimates of measles transmissibility demonstrated much greater variation compared to the historically recognised range. We also identified contextual factors associated with measles transmissibility, including the year and age range of serosurveys, and the Human Development Index.
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Why is it important?
Our revised estimates suggested substantial heterogeneity in measles transmissibility across settings. When quantifying health burden and planning vaccination strategies and control interventions, it is important to consider setting-specific measles transmissibility.
Perspectives
This work was built on a key literature review of population-level measles seostudies led by one of the coauthors and shows our continuing attempt to better understand measles transmission in low- and middle-income settings.
Han Fu
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Estimating the basic reproduction number of measles in low-and middle-income settings using 172 seroprevalence studies: A modelling approach, PLOS Global Public Health, July 2026, PLOS,
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0006731.
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