Low Birth Rates & Family Extinction

What is it about?

Many developed countries are experiencing a drop in birth rates. While experts often say a birth rate of around 2.1 children per woman is enough to keep a population stable, our research shows that's likely too low. We found that to avoid eventual extinction due to random chance the birth rate actually needs to be closer to 2.7. This means that, statistically, most family lines in countries with low birth rates are likely to disappear over time. While this won't happen immediately, the chances of your descendants continuing your family name are shrinking. Interestingly, we also found that having more girls than boys can help a population survive tough times, potentially explaining why this happens naturally in some situations.

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Why is it important?

This research highlights the importance of considering random chance when thinking about population stability and offers a new perspective on the long-term consequences of falling birth rates.