What is it about?
COVID-19 originated in China and spread around the world via the transportation of people. Its spread to major cities with international airports can be attributed to air travel, but more local travel (e.g. driving) was required to spread it to smaller cities and rural counties. We created a novel model that incorporates transportation data on inter-county travel to predict the spread of COVID-19 to those smaller cities, and calibrated this model against travel data and reported COVID-19 cases. This model was used to analyze the importance of travel on COVID-19 spread and predict how changes in travel patterns would have affected its spread.
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Why is it important?
This paper was the first to model how short-term or local travel affected COVID-19 spread, and presented a case study in Minnesota, US. This model may be useful for analyzing the effectiveness of policy decisions relating to travel during the pandemic.
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota, PLoS ONE, January 2021, PLOS,
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245919.
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