What is it about?
Both sea ice and sea surface temperatures in the Arctic are often used to predict weather and climate a few months later. We checked to which degree this can be done using data starting in 1979 and found that there is a potential for prediction one season ahead. Yet, when we used data from before 1979, the relationships that can be used for prediction broke down and even switched sign.
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Why is it important?
One of our main conclusions is that one should take great care when using sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to predict climate in later months. The reason is that the relationships that appear to link SSTs to temperatures over land in recent decades is tenuous and were not valid earlier in the twentieth century.
Perspectives
I lead a seasonal forecasting research project, and I think it is very important that we know as much as possible about why different climate variables are related, sometimes over large distances. The work that we did here contributes to this, and I hope that people will notice the article and absorb its implications.
Dr Erik W Kolstad
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls, Journal of Climate, October 2018, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0016.1.
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