What is it about?

We describe a range of perturbation methodologies to account for uncertainties in the initial conditions, forecast model, surface, and lateral boundary conditions of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system used for weather forecasting.

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Why is it important?

We describe a state-of-the art ensemble prediction system that is used for operations in many European weather services, and also discuss possible ways for improvements.


Here we report on many years of development from many scientist, co-authors to this article, that has led to the basis of the operational ensemble prediction system now used in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden. I hope this paper will be useful both to understand the present status of ensemble prediction, and also to give an indication of the future development that are foreseen in this cooperation among many European Meteorological services.

Inger-Lise Frogner
Meteorologisk institutt

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: HarmonEPS—The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System, Weather and Forecasting, December 2019, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-19-0030.1.
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