A New Weather-Radar Feature Shows Promise in Predicting Downbursts

What is it about?

Decades of research have revealed a lot about how downbursts form and what weather-radar features might be useful in predicting their development. However, downbursts are still difficult to predict especially when they form in short-lived, disorganized storms. Therefore, this research explores a relatively new weather-radar feature that can alert forecasters to processes like melting, which typically lead to stronger downdrafts and downbursts. We look at characteristics of this radar feature for 81 downbursts in 10 different states to see if it can be used to anticipate downburst development and predict how strong a downburst might be.

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Photo by NOAA on Unsplash

Photo by NOAA on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Downbursts pose a risk to life, property, and air travel. Previous research has identified weather-radar features that can be helpful in predicting downbursts, but some of these features change quickly and can be hard to use when issuing warnings for damaging winds. Since predicting downbursts is still a challenge, we studied a relatively new radar feature, called a Kdp core, to see if it might provide useful and reliable information about downburst development. We found that the Kdp core provides a good signal that a downburst is about to develop and also gives some idea about how strong that downburst might be. How favorable atmospheric conditions are for downburst development are also related to how strong the Kdp core and downburst might be.

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