What is it about?

Sometimes long-range weather forecasts are off, and it's important to know why they fail. We found that too-cold or too-warm forecasts three to four weeks ahead could sometimes be traced back to their origins. In particular, the erroneous forecasts were linked to the state of the stratosphere when the forecasts were produced.

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Why is it important?

The only way to improve our prediction models is to learn more about why they fail. We found that the typical responses to unusual stratospheric states were exaggerated in the models. This finding could potentially aid the model developers in rectifying weaknesses.


I hope that our results will enable the model developers to pinpoint weaknesses in the model. This could again lead to more accurate forecasts. I'm leading a center where partners in private and public organizations use our predictions to manage climate risks, and it would be very beneficial for them if the models performed better.

Dr Erik W Kolstad
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast Errors to Stratospheric Origins, Journal of Climate, September 2020, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0270.1.
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