What is it about?
In this paper, we utilize time series tests with "structural breaks" to test for evidence of an impact on economic growth rates in North African countries from the 2007−2009 U.S. and global financial crisis. One or two breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. and EU recessions. Additional tests are performed and we again find no evidence that shocks from the financial crisis had a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007−2009 financial crisis had only a temporary and relatively small impact on economic growth rates in North Africa. We suggest that this might be due
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Why is it important?
We expect that our testing methodologies could also be applied to more recent economic and/or political crises in North Africa and other countries or regions.
Perspectives
By combining actual time series data with later year forecasts, both from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we could obtain results in a timely way. Perhaps most important, by utilizing our data set, we could focus more clearly on estimating the impacts on economic growth rates in North Africa following the financial crises of 2007-2009 prior to the uprisings in 2011.
Mark Strazicich
Appalachian State University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Did the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Impact Economic Growth in North Africa?, Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, January 2012, Brill,
DOI: 10.1163/15691497-12341235.
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