What is it about?
We consider forecasting in a small and unstable regional economy subject to structural breaks. In this context, we work with two types of regime‐shifting databased models using cointegration theory. The objective of the present work is to analyze the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of the two approaches used to construct a short‐term regional econometric model: stochastic and deterministic time varying parameters models. The forecasting experiments will be illustrated by specifying, and estimating an econometric model for Extremadura, a small and unstable region in southwestern Spain.
Featured Image
Photo by Mette van der Linden on Unsplash
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Forecasting in a Small and Unstable Regional Economy Using Regime Shifting Models: The Case of Extremadura, Geographical Analysis, April 2003, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4632.2003.tb01104.x.
You can read the full text:
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
