Asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty on real sector variables in emerging markets: evidence from Brazil, India, China and South Africa

What is it about?

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India, and South Africa.The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework. The results showed that both in the long-run and short-run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption.

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