Preferences for NATO and CSTO in the Caucasus

What is it about?

This is a paper about individuals preferences over their country's foreign policy alliances. It provides an analysis of why individuals in Georgia and. Armenia would prefer that their country seek closer alliance with NATO, CSTO, neither or both. While most Armenians seem to support Armenian membership in CSTO and most Georgians appear to believe that Georgia should pursue NATO membership, some Armenians and Georgians prefer equal relations with both security alliances. The paper suggests that threat perception influences alliance formation preferences at the individual level and advances three propositions. First, individuals who perceive Azerbaijan or Turkey as the primary threat to their state tend to support alignment with the Russian-led CSTO. Second, individuals who view the main threat to their state coming from Russia are predisposed to support NATO membership. Finally, individuals who believe that tensions between Russia and the West are detrimental to their country are more inclined to support equal relations with both NATO and CSTO. In general, the evidence is consistent with these conjectures.

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Photo by Daniel Born on Unsplash

Photo by Daniel Born on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Foreign policy alliance formation among small states in the aggregate has been extensively examined in the literature, but mass opinion and preferences on alliance formation in these states remains understudied. To address this gap, this article examines individual alliance preferences in two small states in the South Caucasus region: Georgia and Armenia. The paper discusses implications for the study of mass opinion on alliance formation.