What is it about?

While the US has played the role of sole superpower since the decline of the Soviet Union, economic growth in China during the 1990s and 2000s has made it a major centre of economic power. Until recently, this did not translate into international political power: China hung back from intervening and supported US power. This situation now appears to be changing as the economic crisis has decisively weakened US economic power, while many areas of the world have slipped out of US control (Russia has expanded into Eastern Europe, the Middle East is undergoing a wave of turbulence, between revolutions and civil wars). And while the US was once dominant in Asia Pacific, China now appears keen to assert control over the South China Sea by building military bases, artificial islands, and patrolling the area with warships. The US has responded in kind. In sum, the situation is volatile and dangerous, and requires deeper explanation than those produced by military strategists alone. We criticise theorists tied to the regimes on both sides, arguing that globalisation has produced a real-world contradiction between territorial expansion and economic interconnectedness which is not easily solved by states and international law as it currently exists.

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Why is it important?

Liberals and realists are both blinkered by their theoretical perspectives, and have not attempted to explain the roots of the conflict in the context of broader transformations of global capitalism. We propose critical theory, based on 'geopolitical economy', which looks below the surface of military conflicts to the state-society arragements involved (sovereignty regimes) and, in turn, how these are shaped by the totality of capitalist relations and in turn seek to reshape world order in their favour.

Perspectives

My view is that the situation in the South China Sea is extremely serious as a potential flashpoint between rival superpowers. Defusing it should not be left to those concerned with military aspects alone and whose solution is more, rather than less, militarisation of the region. Nor are liberal internationalists well placed to understand the very real material tensions which are evolving, and their blind faith in legal precedent and international organisations ignores the extent to which these are in reality structured in favour of the US and its allies and will thus be (quite expectedly) rejected by a rising China. By outlining how capitalism is territorialised in these contending geographical centres of political power, the pacifying power of globalisation theory is proven to fall short. This suggests we ought to look beyond it in order to conceive of alternative social arrangements in which such disputes are neutralised.

Steve Rolf
University of Bristol

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This page is a summary of: Sovereignty regimes in the South China Sea: assessing contemporary Sino-US relations, Eurasian Geography and Economics, March 2016, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/15387216.2016.1234403.
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