Future Hydro-Climatic Change in the Canadian Portion of the Columbia River Basin

What is it about?

We use a hydrologic model that includes a simple representation of glaciers, forced with statistically-downscaled output from global climate models, to project changes to evaporation, precipitation, runoff, snow, soil moisture and temperature in the Canadian portion of the Columbia River Basin. We find a greater decrease in summer precipitation and a greater increase in annual precipitation than other previous studies likely because we use newer emissions scenarios and climate models.

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Why is it important?

Annual streamflow is expected to increase by 11 to 27 percent in 2071-2098 in the Columbia and Kootenay rivers north of the Canada/US border versus average conditions for 1961-1990. This annual increase will come from increasing flows in winter and spring. Decreased flows are projected in the summer months in both basins, with up to a 55 percent decrease in August in the more southern Kootenay river basin due to higher evaporation rates.