Strategic foresight modelling for maritime clusters

What is it about?

The paper provides a model for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters, through a three-tier SWOT framework. Quantitative SWOT is employed to extract a simple crosstab; its conditional probabilities are then utilized as transition probabilities and compile a Markov chain. Through the transition matrix of the Markov chain, strategic forecasts can be relinquished.

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Why is it important?

The field of strategic management of industrial clusters has gained increased attention in recent decades, though the instruments formulated for facilitating and assessing strategy within clusters are scarce. In addition, the domain of strategic forecasting can benefit from its enrichment with new models and frameworks. This work relinquishes a contribution both to the field of strategic foresight and industrial cluster theory. The forecasting model presented can facilitate the management of strategy within maritime and industrial clusters, and at the same time provide an effective catalyst for strategic policy.