A functional data approach to model score difference process in professional basketball games

What is it about?

Essentially, basketball game is about how to score and prevent the other team from scoring. We study the score difference between two teams (in professional basketball, home team and away team) and propose the novel definition of 'momentum' in basketball games. In any time of the game, a team has the tendency to score, which we model using FDA method. We found that momentum plays very important role in determining the outcome of games in close games: e.g., teams carrying momentum into the fourth quarter in a tied (or close, within 3 points) game have higher chance to win. Momentum is found to increase the chance of winning and that justifies the coaches' decision to call time-outs to stop other teams' runs. Home court advantage is also found to be significant in NBA, and that home teams which concedes several momentum to the opponent are less likely to mail it in.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

Basketball is a game of runs. In this study, we propose a general and novel definition of momentum in basketball and in sports in general. We found that in NBA games, momentum plays an important role in determining the outcome of the game, especially in close games. This is the first study which quantitatively study the relationship between in-game momentum and outcome.

Perspectives