What is it about?
I use new measures of labor flows to assess the impact of cohort size, female labor force participation, immigration, and retirement on the labor force between 1910 and 2040. I argue that we are on the verge of a demographic transformation that will dramatically increase the demand for young workers. We we can expect strong upward pressure on wages, more labor organizing, and reduced inequality.
Featured Image
Photo by David Clode on Unsplash
Why is it important?
The impending demographic transformation has powerful implications for the economy and for society.
Perspectives
I have always been fascinated by Easterlin's relative cohort size hypothesis. I hope I have explained why his predictions failed and provided a more realistic alternative.
Steven Ruggles
University of Minnesota Twin Cities
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The pig in the python: US decennial labor flows and economic opportunity, 1910–2040, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2026, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2601716123.
You can read the full text:
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
