What is it about?
We use a new method called Doublethink to test 1,912 possible causes of COVID-19 hospitalization in UK Biobank.
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Why is it important?
Understanding what causes disease is key to improving its treatment and prevention. Large health studies like UK Biobank measure thousands of possible causes of disease. Traditionally, scientists have tested possible causes (like smoking or exercise) one at a time, in depth. For greater perspective, variables could be tested altogether to find out which have any effect. We recently introduced Doublethink, which combines the advantages of two major statistical approaches to testing. We found strong evidence for relatively overlooked causes: aging, dementia, and previous infections. Findings from other health studies support these causes, highlighting the need to reevaluate them and showing how our approach can reveal valuable insights.
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This page is a summary of: Identifying direct risk factors in UK Biobank via simultaneous Bayesian-frequentist model-averaged hypothesis testing using Doublethink, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 2026, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2514138122.
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